Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Unlike Lindsay, Williams can supplant Gordon at the goal line, and there's some possibility that Williams takes over the backfield right away. . His career marks are high because he played long (13 yrs) and was consistent. The Top Ten 1 David Beckham David Robert Joseph Beckham is (born 2 May 1975) is an English former professional footballer, the current president & co-owner of Inter Miami CF and co-owner of Salford City.. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. Thurman Thomas 14. Barry Sanders 3. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. only site on the planet. Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. He's more powerful and understands how to work between the tackles. I'm out. In five games without Mark Ingram II in 2020, Dobbins only out-carried Gus Edwards 13 to 11.6. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Barkley is a workhorse. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Jordan McNamara: Like Gaskin, David Johnson is in a cloudy situation after Philip Lindsay drew the starting role in Houston in week 1. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. I'll pass on Barkley at cost. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. J.D. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. His career YPC was 3.9. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. They will be pass-dominant inside the five-yard line, which doesn't help Edwards-Helaire's fantasy stock. His production waned down the stretch in Carolina last year, and when was the last time we cared about an Atlanta running back in fantasy football anyway? Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. Andy Hicks: It is hard for an undrafted rookie running back to succeed in the NFL. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. If Gordon's injury is extended, Williams could be appropriately priced, but until there is more information, he is an avoid at cost. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Adrian Peterson 10. Even if he isn't named the Saints' starting quarterback, Hill's continued presence in the red zone and at the goal-line infringes on Kamara's touchdown opportunity. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. In addition, teammate Gus Edwards just signed a two-year, $10M contract extension in June, so he isnt going anywhere any time soon. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. Chris "Beanie" Wells. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. Can he still be fantasy-relevant? McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. The current regime did not select Robinson. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. Jim Brown 2. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. While he can certainly put up some strong fantasy weeks, the savvier move would be to wait for the younger backs later in the draft. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). . Michael Carter, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB36. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. There isnt much to like here. Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. Green Bay seems to like A.J. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. most overrated running backs of all time. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Gary Davenport: Drafting an RB1 based on wishful thinking isn't an ideal strategy, yet Williams keeps getting picked inside the top-12 at his position. Has no highlight reel. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. And Hill is only touchable due to the cheat code rushing factor for quarterbacks. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. NFL career: 1988-91, all with Cincinnati Bengals (4 seasons) Statistics/16 games: 659.5 rush yards/4.6 yards per . In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft, along with two overrated back based on this model: ESPN + He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. The 49ers traded up to draft Trey Sermon, they brought in Wayne Gallman as a free agent, and Jeff Wilson is still around. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? Ben Cummins: The Raiders offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). This slideshow lists the most underrated and overrated quarterbacks, running backs and receivers in the NFL, and the choices might shock you. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. 2022/07/02 . But drafting him as a high-upside No. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. Now, if the right-back fully lived up to his potential, then he could have been a Man City great. The additions of Mike Boone and Javonte Williams haven't done anything to dispel this idea. It appears as if theres a change of guard happening in San Fransisco. Jordan McNamara: The news on Saquon Barkley does not reassure me. Sigmund Bloom: Barkley may not be 100% to start the season, and he might not truly be 100% until next season. His best year came in 2011 when he ran for 10 touchdowns and 1,047 yards, but other than that he didn't do much else. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. Think about that for a moment. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. Adrian . You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. Pat Fitzmaurice: The appeal is that he's an inexpensive lead back. Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. The more problematic issue is that the Texans are a train wreck. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. 1 cornerstone. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. Preseason may help a little. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. 5. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. Backs who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage are going after Chubb. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. Kudos to James Robinson. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. My, my, how the game has changed. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. Overall: 98 and 96. 24 Overrated RBs. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. A veteran, a trade, or another team's roster cut is more likely to be the bigger threat. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB10. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Jerome Bettis 16. Earl Campbell 9. No thanks. There is no upside with drafting Gaskin this high. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. Dave Kluge: The 49ers drafted Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell and signed free agent Wayne Gallman. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB22. Andrew Davenport: Montgomery was the 26th-ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest through nine games last year. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB21. Give me Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs in a similar draft range with stronger probabilities to hit as a top-10 option. Jonathan Morris: I can't endorse a high pick on Javonte Williams when he will yield a lot of work to Melvin Gordon III. History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. Ronaldinho is also one of the finest players of all time and the global icon dazzled with his Brazilian flair for across Europe, most notably for Barcelona and AC Milan. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. That, plus the uncertainty of Edmond's role, leaves me more concerned than excited. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. "Matthew Berry, ESPN. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. Anthony Amico: Dobbins is being drafted as if he has a far greater stranglehold on this Ravens backfield than he likely will. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. So what's the concern? Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. The following represent the most overrated NFL player on each team. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. by | Jul 2, 2022 | beaches near airports florida | legends untold sewers | Jul 2, 2022 | beaches near airports florida | legends untold sewers Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. That role may not disappear completely, but the addition of Gio Bernard is a bad sign for Tampa Bay's intentions with Fournette. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. Jamal Lewis 18. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus.